Quarterly Small-Cap Equity Factor Review—Royce
article 04-22-2025

Quarterly Small-Cap Equity Factor Review—1Q25

QTD and YTD Factor Performance

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Low Volatility Stands Strong in Q1

In the first quarter of 2025, low volatility emerged as a resilient dividend value factor within the Russell 2000 universe. Despite market challenges, it experienced the smallest decline among factors reviewed by Royce, registering a -5.5% drop. In contrast, micro-caps, representing the size factor, fared the worst with a steep -17.5% decline. Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Index itself closed the quarter down -9.5%.

Small-Cap Factor Performance in 1Q25 and Calendar Year 2024
Average Annual Total Returns for 1Q25 and 2024 Periods for the Deep Value, Quality Value, and Dividend Value Factors Within the Russell 2000 Index

Subsequent Average Annualized Three-Year Return for the Russell 2000 Starting in Monthly Rolling VIX Return Ranges

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

Royce Small-Cap Dividend Value Held Up the Best Among the Royce Multi-Factor Indexes

The Royce Small-Cap Dividend Value Index notably outperformed the Russell 2000 Index, posting a modest decline of -7.1% in Q1. This was followed by the Royce Small-Cap Deep Value Index at -9.0%, while the Royce Small-Cap Quality Value Index lagged behind with a -11.3% decrease. In comparison, the Russell 2000 Index saw a -9.5% decline for the quarter.

Royce Multi-Factor Index Performance
Average Annual Total Returns for 1Q25, 2024 and Since the Russell 2000 Peak on 11/25/2024

Subsequent Average Annualized Three-Year Return for the Russell 2000 Starting in Monthly Rolling VIX Return Ranges

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

The Russell 2000 Index established a new peak on 11/25/24. In the current down market, the Royce Small-Cap Deep Value Index uncharacteristically fell the least, down -14.0%. In contrast, the broader Russell 2000 Index was down -17.2% over the same period.

Outlook

The small-cap market declined in Q1 2025, reflecting investor uncertainty around tariffs, declining consumer confidence, and stubborn inflation. In addition, the Federal Reserve paused its rate-cutting cycle during the quarter, and monetary expansion remained subdued. However, the year-over-year growth rate of the True Money Supply turned slightly positive in February, indicating the early stages of policy easing. Despite the modest pace, the current trajectory of monetary expansion continues to support the Small-Cap Dividend Value strategy. While tariffs are not a central focus of Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), they contribute to market distortions by affecting prices and resource allocation. Inflation, by contrast, plays a central role in ABCT due to its direct connection to interest rate policy. As part of our review, we are closely monitoring the business cycle to better understand factor performance during each phase of the cycle.

Important Disclosure Information

The thoughts concerning recent market movements and future prospects for small-company stocks are solely those of Royce Investment Partners, and, of course, there can be no assurances with respect to future small-cap market performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Historical market trends are not necessarily indicative of future market movements. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

1High Growth Small-Caps are the top quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted by each company’s asset growth over the past five years. High Momentum Small-Caps are the top quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted by each company’s total return over the past year, excluding the most recent month. Small Size Small-Caps are the bottom quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted by each company’s market-cap. High Value Book-to-Price Small-Caps are the top quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted by the inverse of each company’s P/B (share price divided by book value per share).

2High Value Earnings Yield Small-Caps are the top quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted by the inverse of each company’s P/E, i.e. its earning yield (share price divided by trailing 12-month earnings per share). High Profitability Small-Caps are the top quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted by each company’s ROA (trailing 12-month net income divided by the two fiscal period average total assets).

3Dividend Payer Small-Caps are securities within the Russell 2000 that paid a dividend within the last 12-months. Low Volatility Small-Caps are the top quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted ascending by each company’s 90-Day Price Standard Deviation. Standard deviation is a statistical measure within which a company’s stock price has varied over time. The greater the standard deviation, the greater the volatility. Low Leverage Small-Caps are the top quintile of securities within each Russell 2000 FactSet sector, sorted ascending by each company’s Net Debt-to-LTM EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).

All factors are equal weighted, rebalanced quarterly, and performance is calculated monthly.

The Royce Small-Cap Quality Value Index is a proprietary index composed of small-cap stocks trading in the United States with relatively low valuations, high profitability and high debt coverage compared with the average of stocks in the investment universe. The Royce Small-Cap Deep Value Index is a proprietary index composed of small-cap stocks trading in the United States with relatively low valuations and high debt coverage compared with the average of stocks in the investment universe. The Royce Small-Cap Dividend Value Index is a proprietary index composed of small-cap dividend paying stocks trading in the United States with relatively low valuations, high profitability and high debt coverage compared with the average of stocks in the investment universe. Royce has retained Solactive AG, an unaffiliated third party, to calculate the Underlying Indexes. Solactive AG publishes information regarding the market value of the Underlying Indexes. The full Index rulebooks are available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The performance of an index does not represent exactly any particular investment, as you cannot invest directly in an index.

Frank Russell Company (“Russell”) is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. Russell® is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and / or Russell ratings and / or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell’s express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. All indexes referenced are unmanaged and capitalization weighted. The Russell 2000 Index is an index of domestic small-cap stocks that measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest publicly traded U.S. companies in the Russell 3000 Index.

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